Price Target Analysis: LCTITAN (5284)

For those trading LCTITAN using technical charts, all concerns expressed are fair points.

This week has closed lower than 1.10.
- Yes, the technical bias is downwards.
- Yes, nobody knows where the next bottom is because in a downtrend, supports tend to get broken.
- And if one backtest to Mar 2019 when the strong 4.10-4.20 support got broken the next 12 months was very painful.

So, what should we do. A few other observations:
1. I am underweighted - my neutral position size is 3% of my portfolio and it is now 2.1%. This % comes down because LCTITAN fall at a faster rate than my total portfolio with other stocks.
2. If we go back to March 2019, there was still a high probability win when we combine technical tools with our fundamental beliefs on this stock. When it fall, let it fall until it finds a new base and then accumulate following position size rules. If we are disciplined, the next 24 months also turned out a winner.
3. Back in 2019, the NTA was higher than Price but not much higher. Hence a big fall is not unexpected.
4. Today, the NTA was very much higher than RM1 vs NTA > RM5 - huge cash converted to fixed assets. Less likely for further fall. In fact, this time we see the break below 1.10 has lower volume, suggesting less belief of a much larger fall. Nobody knows of course. Small initial reactions can sometimes gather larger volumes to push down, but given the huge gap and there is a business behind this stock, the odds are less of this happening.
5. This suggests Principle of Alternation is more likely to occur in 2024-2026, than 2019-2021.
6. In other words, as I have anticipated and prepared for this upcoming move, I continue to execute my strategy i.e. lower prices is an accumulation zone, but not greater than my neutral position size.
7. This is because, nobody knows if this stock is going to zero - I think 99% chance it won't, but I am never certain but odds are extremely good that in the next 2-3 years, I will win if I stick to my fundamental + technical strategy. The win size though may not be large (it depends on market) and the time to take to win is uncertain. But I am confident with my approach in the long run for 100 stocks, because Technical Analysis on its own has limitations.

Everyone should have their own strategy. Good luck over the next 3 years.

4 weeks ago

Good explanation. Whether using technical or trend line projections. Always set your own limit not to forget your own risk appetite.

4 weeks ago

And your own time line investment strategy. For long term holdings{ 2-3 years} or short term trading 3-6 mths tine frame

4 weeks ago

xiaoeh

Good sharing DividendGuy67
strongly agree with point 07.
fundamental + technical strategy

currently Lctitan's future is highly uncertain
at least for now...

4 weeks ago

rocket2000

QR should be out today?

2 weeks ago

Stocks888

Selling …..

2 weeks ago

Stocks888

No QR release haha… bye bye

2 weeks ago

cheated

Why QR still big loss? When loss QR can stop?

2 weeks ago

Losses for the 1st quarter FY 24 comes in at - 178 million lower vs Y-o-Y. LCtitan has lost money consecutively for the last 9 quarters

2 weeks ago

EatCoconutCanWin

This company is time to buy

2 weeks ago

xiaoeh

any good news EatCoconutCanWin?

2 weeks ago

Post removed.Why?

1 week ago

rickygiam

Sure drop below 90cts consider buy to keep..

1 week ago

The first quarter losses of - 178 milllion is slightly below the loss of - 225 million reported in the previous qtr. Nevertheless based on what was reported by the press. LC titan is expected to face worse off in the 2nd quarter ending June24 with lower sales volume and weak product demand. With demand muted and a supply gut Analyst expected LCtitan core losses to further widenen. The 1st Qtr losses ending March 24 was narrower due to the LCtitan has capitalised 136 million in interest expenses relating to the loan taken for their Indonesia plant expansion. In other words the accounting side have sidestep the interest from the P&L and instead putting as part of the construction costs. This is something minorities should. Make note of. The cost of construction costs would be substantially higher with the debt interest added on the plant expansion. Please do your research and understand the so called interest and cost transfer

1 week ago

cK1973

so EP 90-100.....
can?

1 week ago

cheated

LC Titan down 5 sen today so DividendGuy67 portfolio still make new high(many of his posts comprise his portfolios make new high) today?

1 week ago

Hi cheated. Yes, with KLCI up, majority of my stocks went up, to offset the reds and yes, my portfolio made new all time high again today, even with LCTITAN down 5 sen.

That is the beauty of a highly diversified above average quality businesses. No one single stock dominates.

Unfortunately, i3 has deleted all references to my blog. That's fine since I blog mostly for my own future reading and future reference. It reduces my sharing but I respect i3's wishes.

Whilst LCTITAN drop 5 sen, my other stock UOADEV went up 5 sen and I own more shares there than in LCTITAN, hence, that helps. But it's now behaving as I expect, so, curious to see how much lower LCTITAN can get. Times like this, as it approaches accumulation zone, this is an opportunity.

1 week ago

All time low 0.975. Traders will be eyeing price action near here.
Given the downward momentum (huge fear), my tembak sense say maybe 50:50 chance we may see a new low, if RM1 round number support doesn't hold.

Apparently, market likes to make new low to trigger traders stop losses below there. I don't know and don't care.

If it does get there, then, maybe got some chance we might see capitulation i.e. big drop down fast and recover fast. This is because today's candle length is longer with bigger volume.

So, the question for this week is will tomorrow be even longer red candle with even bigger volume?

Traders love capitulation because this is when you make fast monies as a trader.

1 week ago

Jonathan Keung

Technically still negative. Strong possibilities of Lctitan testing new low below 95 sen. A few IBs have put the TP at 90 sen based on widening losses for 2 ND quarter assumption. For momentum day traders try not to catch a falling knives . Lctitan not for trading prepared to hold 1 or 2 years till the plant is completed

1 week ago

Markv572421

Pity Lctitan.......

1 week ago

MG9231

ipo above $5 , since then diarrhea

1 week ago

There must be a strong reason or compelling factor LG Korea have decided to dispose off their subsidiary LCTITAN which they have invested

1 week ago

They are not telling us except for the standard reply. Weak demand and over supply

1 week ago

My accumulation order at 1.00 was filled. Basically bought nearly 40% of what I previously sold at 1.4x. I didn’t buy 100% because a larger part of me expects more downtrend. This is part of a longer term strategy. Not expecting anything to happen in near term except for lower prices.

1 week ago

Best of luck to you.... Bro. Need to stay away and see whether the IB jokers TP price prediction of 90 sen can materialised

1 week ago

Thanks Plantermen. I'm indifferent to the outcome of this one trade, as I own many stocks.

Still, today closed at 1.00 with almost equal volume as yesterday. 4 red days. Usually, 5th day should be red (majority odds). However, today was not capitulation but slowing down, with only 2 sen from Open to Close. Not common to see a big capitulation after today's move down.

So, if extend, majority odds tomorrow might see 98 sen. My position here is still significantly underweighted at around 2.36% of portfolio (target is 3%), as my total portfolio made new all time high again today! Expected as KLCI is strong, to land at 1605!

1 week ago

Serbadinamik 2.0

Runnnnn....

5 days ago

azfar8

Any new suggestions if run from here?

4 days ago

So many......grab glove stocks........airplane aax capitala.....

4 days ago

azfar8

Is it still not too late to enter at this moment?

4 days ago

privatisation is on the cards. think can accumulate :-)

2 days ago

jinxstock20

Below Rm1 is really a good deal to buy

2 days ago

The last time it privatised was 1x book value in 2010.

2 days ago

stevenckheng

NTA 5, P/B 0.2 , apa jadi ni

2 days ago

will be taken over soon

1 day ago

jinxstock20

Taken over by who ?

1 day ago

Rio2814

What will be the take over price?

1 day ago

LCT has expanded tremendously with completion of Indonesia LINE project, so its a very god proposition for take over. Its fixed assets is now RM17 bil. At current market price, its a good accumulation.

1 day ago

I just posted an article on LCTITAN here, sharing my trading idea.
I'm patient and can wait for 1, 2 or 3 years for my trading idea to come to fruition. If it happens within a few months, that is a bonus to me.

6 hours ago

Take over soon? Haha ...

5 hours ago

(sorry ... a company that is about to be taken over soon will have a completely different price action than what's printed so far ... quite certain there is no take over soon).

4 hours ago

Don't be greedy. I've seen fundamental stocks priced at P/NTA = 0.2, then, fall to 0.1, i.e. 50% fall from current price. Nothing is impossible.

4 hours ago

kl_guy

when bull run , any stock will also move. lctitan is oversold . short term can goreng

4 hours ago

A week plus ago, Jonathan shared "Strong possibilities of Lctitan testing new low below 95 sen." This is a common TA trader view back then as it was downtrending, so, majority odds.

Subsequently, it printed a higher low of 0.985, 0.5 sen higher than the normal expectation of 0.98, which I mentioned. The fact that it didn't happen means market knows how TA traders thinks and moves ahead of them.

However, because market knows that we know, so, market thinks another step ahead typically. I.e. typically 2 steps ahead of TA traders.

Meaning, 0.985 might not be the low - I would say 30%-40% chance it could revisit this.
Whereas the chance of touching 1.46 within next 12 months, IMHO, is slightly better than 40% chance.
Vast majority of the time, it's going to try to exhaust participants first, before it makes its move.
The odds add up to more than 100% because price revisits same levels many, many times.

4 hours ago

I collect some lah. Enough for kfc

4 hours ago

kl_guy, that's true and very common.

4 hours ago

Jonathan168138

I love recovery play, put this in radar first.

4 hours ago

kl_guy

LC have a gap down from rm1.46 .
theorically price will move back to cover that gap . So you have patient , can wait for the rm1.46 level.

2 hours ago